What moved in world markets — August 11, 2026

Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? moved +27.4pp in the last 24 hours to 97% on $178.6K of volume.

On August 10, Russia's Supreme Court ruled in favor of a lawsuit filed August 7 by the pro-Kremlin nationalist party Rodina and struck Yabloko's federal list from the State Duma ballot over alleged undeclared foreign funding and campaigning breaches. It was the first time in post-Soviet Russia that a registered federal list has been removed from a Duma ballot. With elections set for September 18-20 and party leader Nikolay Rybakov saying only that Yabloko would appeal, the market treats the ban as effectively settled, hence the jump to 97%.

$179K traded in 24h · live odds →

Bank of Japan Decision in September? moved -16.0pp in the last 24 hours to 42% on $37.4K of volume.

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1% on July 31 in an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.25%, and Governor Ueda's remarks were read as mildly hawkish. There was no fresh dated catalyst on August 10-11 to explain the 16-point drop; the pullback looks like repositioning after the hold, leaving the September 17 meeting priced as roughly a coin flip rather than the near-lock some had expected after the recent Japan-US yen intervention.

$37K traded in 24h · live odds →

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner moved -9.5pp in the last 24 hours to 27% on $86.8K of volume.

Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary was held August 11. Late polling put state House Speaker Lisa Demuth around 28% and roughly 11 points clear, as continued coverage of Mike Lindell's MyPillow exit and campaign-finance case eroded the former front-runner's standing. The market's top outcome slipping to 27% reflects that tightening: the field narrowed to Demuth and Lindell with no candidate commanding a decisive lead going into the count.

$87K traded in 24h · live odds →

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? moved -6.0pp in the last 24 hours to 17% on $60.6K of volume.

On August 9, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not holding direct negotiations with Washington and will not restart talks unless the US meets its conditions and stops violating the June Islamabad memorandum of understanding, adding that any contact is running through intermediaries such as Pakistan and Qatar. That hardened stance pushed down the odds of a near-term next round, leaving the market at 17%.

$61K traded in 24h · live odds →

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? moved -5.2pp in the last 24 hours to 7% on $80.8K of volume.

Mojtaba Khamenei, named supreme leader after his father was killed in a February 28 Israeli strike, has not been seen in public since. On August 10, Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency released an undated video of him speaking with a group of men, with no date or location given. Because an undated clip does not amount to a verifiable public appearance, the release did little to advance the market's condition, and the odds eased to about 7%.

$81K traded in 24h · live odds →