Geopolitics Odds
Live implied probabilities for the world’s geopolitical flashpoints, sourced from Polymarket prices and refreshed every 10 minutes. Pick a topic to see every tracked market.
Iran
Live prediction-market odds on Iran: military strikes, nuclear program milestones, sanctions snapback, regime stability, and leadership succession. After the June 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz and Fordow, traders have kept Iran markets among the most active geopolitical contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi. This hub tracks whether new strikes occur, whether a nuclear deal gets signed, Khamenei succession scenarios, IRGC escalation in the Gulf, and shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz — with prices updated continuously as headlines move.
58 tracked marketsChina & Taiwan
Prediction-market probabilities on the world's biggest tail risk: a Chinese move against Taiwan. This hub aggregates markets on invasion and blockade timelines, PLA exercises and incursions, US-China military incidents, Xi Jinping's hold on power, and cross-strait diplomacy. Traders watch these contracts as a real-money barometer of Indo-Pacific risk that often moves ahead of official commentary — especially around Taiwanese elections, US arms packages, and Chinese military drills. Prices here also feed broader macro positioning on semiconductors and shipping.
25 tracked marketsRussia & Ukraine
Live odds on the Russia-Ukraine war: ceasefire timing, a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, territorial settlement terms, sanctions moves, and leadership risk in Moscow and Kyiv. As of June 2026 talks remain stalled — Zelenskyy has offered direct negotiations with European backing while Putin holds out for territorial concessions — and ceasefire contracts reprice on every diplomatic headline. This hub tracks those markets alongside longer-dated questions on NATO posture, frozen-asset transfers, and whether the war ends in 2026 at all.
49 tracked marketsIsrael & Gaza
Prediction markets on Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East: ceasefire durability, hostage releases, Gaza's postwar governance, Netanyahu's political survival, Hezbollah and Lebanon escalation, and Saudi-Israel normalization. The phased ceasefire framework brokered in late 2025 left traders pricing each milestone — disarmament steps, reconstruction authority, election timing in Israel — as separate contracts. This hub collects them in one place, where odds move fast on regional headlines and often diverge sharply from media narratives.
26 tracked marketsGreenland
Live odds on whether the United States acquires Greenland — the prediction-market question that refuses to die. President Trump has repeatedly pressed Denmark over the island, and traders price contracts on US acquisition or control by various dates, Greenland independence referendums, expanded US military presence at Pituffik, and Danish-American diplomatic ruptures. Volumes spike whenever the White House revives the issue. This hub tracks every Greenland and Arctic-sovereignty market with the underlying resolution criteria spelled out, because the fine print decides these contracts.
3 tracked marketsVenezuela
Prediction markets on Venezuela after the January 2026 US operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and put him in a Brooklyn federal jail. Traders now price what comes next: whether the Delcy Rodríguez government holds power through 2026, free-election timing, María Corina Machado's role, sanctions relief, oil output recovery, and further US military action in the Caribbean. Venezuela contracts were among 2025's highest-volume geopolitical markets and remain a live laboratory for regime-transition pricing. This hub tracks every market on the post-Maduro order.
11 tracked marketsNorth Korea
Live prediction-market odds on North Korea, anchored to a fast-moving 2026. Kim Jong Un opened the year with a January salvo of ballistic missiles and a 10-missile barrage from Sunan in March, then personally observed the ninth ground test of a carbon-fiber solid-fuel engine built for the Hwasong-20 ICBM — the escalation ladder traders are pricing when they bet on ICBM launch windows and range milestones. A seventh nuclear test still hasn't come: Punggye-ri's Tunnel No. 3 has been physically ready since 2022 and the only missing trigger is Kim's political go-ahead, so those contracts resolve on a decision, not a capability. The other live questions are a second Trump-Kim summit (Trump says a location is being negotiated, but Kim has ruled out giving up his arsenal and, backed by Moscow and Beijing, has less reason to deal than in 2018) and Pyongyang's deepening role in Russia's war — tens of thousands of troops, ballistic-missile shipments, and up to 40% of the shells Russia fires in Ukraine. This hub tracks each market with its resolution source and date documented, because on North Korea the exact wording — 'launch' vs 'test,' calendar-year deadlines — decides who gets paid.
1 tracked marketTariffs & Trade
Prediction markets on US trade policy after the Supreme Court gutted its legal foundation. On February 20, 2026 the Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs at all, striking down both the April 2025 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl-trafficking tariffs; the administration terminated them and CBP stopped collecting on February 24. The tariff regime didn't vanish — it migrated to other statutes: a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 (which by law expired after 150 days, around July 24, 2026) and, more durably, Section 232 national-security tariffs (steel and aluminum at 50%, autos, and a new 15% polysilicon rate from August 6) plus Section 301 actions. The average effective US tariff rate has fallen back to roughly 7% from its 2025 peak, with China near 23% and USMCA-qualifying Canadian and Mexican goods largely exempt. That reshuffling is what today's contracts actually resolve on: whether specific Section 232 investigations conclude and at what rate by a given date, how large and how fast IEEPA refunds flow through CBP's CAPE system (Phase 2 opened June 29), whether Congress codifies any tariffs, and country-by-country deal deadlines. This hub tracks each with the governing authority and resolution date spelled out, because post-ruling the legal basis, not just the headline rate, decides who gets paid.
1 tracked marketFederal Reserve
Live market-implied probabilities on the Federal Reserve: rate decisions at each FOMC meeting, the fed funds path, and leadership questions in the Kevin Warsh era. Warsh was sworn in as chair in May 2026 after a 54-45 confirmation, with Jerome Powell staying on as a governor — a transition traders priced for months. This hub tracks meeting-by-meeting cut and hike odds, year-end rate contracts, and governance markets like board resignations and White House pressure scenarios, updated as prices move on every data print.
5 tracked marketsGovernment Shutdown
Prediction-market odds on US government shutdowns and fiscal cliffs: whether funding lapses at the next deadline, how long a shutdown lasts, and debt-limit brinkmanship. After the record 43-day shutdown of late 2025, traders treat every continuing-resolution expiration as a tradable event, and shutdown contracts reliably spike in volume as deadlines approach. This hub follows the September 30 fiscal-year deadline, stopgap negotiations, appropriations progress in a divided-attention midterm year, and the recurring question of who blinks first.
1 tracked market2028 Election
The longest-running markets in politics: who wins the 2028 presidential election, and who the parties nominate. Even before the 2026 midterms resolve, eight-figure volume sits on contracts tracking JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and a long tail of dark horses. This hub aggregates nominee markets, party-winner contracts, and the structural questions traders argue about — third-term chatter, open-convention scenarios, and how midterm results reprice the 2028 field overnight. Odds shift constantly as 2028 positioning breaks into the open.
17 tracked markets
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade geopolitics on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.