North Korea Odds — Live Probabilities

Live prediction-market odds on North Korea, anchored to a fast-moving 2026. Kim Jong Un opened the year with a January salvo of ballistic missiles and a 10-missile barrage from Sunan in March, then personally observed the ninth ground test of a carbon-fiber solid-fuel engine built for the Hwasong-20 ICBM — the escalation ladder traders are pricing when they bet on ICBM launch windows and range milestones. A seventh nuclear test still hasn't come: Punggye-ri's Tunnel No. 3 has been physically ready since 2022 and the only missing trigger is Kim's political go-ahead, so those contracts resolve on a decision, not a capability. The other live questions are a second Trump-Kim summit (Trump says a location is being negotiated, but Kim has ruled out giving up his arsenal and, backed by Moscow and Beijing, has less reason to deal than in 2018) and Pyongyang's deepening role in Russia's war — tens of thousands of troops, ballistic-missile shipments, and up to 40% of the shells Russia fires in Ukraine. This hub tracks each market with its resolution source and date documented, because on North Korea the exact wording — 'launch' vs 'test,' calendar-year deadlines — decides who gets paid.