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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Odds

$198K total volume$74 24hResolves by January 1, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
3%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Implied
3%
American
+3233
Decimal
33.33

Cross-market check

Polymarket

3%

Kalshi

2%

KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-KJONDPRK

Spread: +0.7pp (Polymarket − Kalshi)

Kalshi comparison shown only for verified equivalent markets.

Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 3% — roughly +3233 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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