Polymarket + Kalshi · refreshed every 10 min
Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines
What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.
$11.6M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h
Trending markets
by 24h volumeFed Decision in September?
80%Leader: 25 bps increase
Next French Presidential Election
35%Leader: Marine Le Pen
Brazil Presidential Election
49%Leader: Flávio Bolsonaro
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
51%Leader: J.D. Vance
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
23%September 30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%Presidential Election Winner 2028
24%Leader: JD Vance
Israel closes its airspace by...?
96%September 30
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
18%Leader: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
89%September 30
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
53%Leader: Gadi Eizenkot
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8%New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Open a Polymarket account →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.
Biggest 24h movers
All movers →| # | Market | Probability | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lima Mayoral Election Winner | 70% | -12.1pp | $11K |
| 2 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) | 87% | +10.0pp | $176K |
| 3 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? | 49% | +7.5pp | $274K |
| 4 | Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner | 63% | -5.5pp | $463 |
| 5 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place | 77% | +1.5pp | $37K |
| 6 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 29% | +1.5pp | $2K |
| 7 | Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | 62% | -1.0pp | $1K |
| 8 | Paraná Governor Election Winner | 83% | +1.0pp | $2K |
Election HQ
2026 Midterm Election Odds
Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.
Browse by topic
Daily briefing · September 12, 2026
What moved in world markets — September 12, 2026
5 markets that moved — read the briefing →
Related prediction-market desks
owned research networkWorld-headline markets rarely move in isolation. These specialist desks cover adjacent probability signals that help explain policy, technology, capital-market, and culture reactions.
MacroOdds
Fed, inflation, recession, and rate odds
Track the macro backdrop that can change election risk, oil markets, trade expectations, and geopolitical risk pricing.
Odsage
AI model, release, and IPO prediction markets
Follow AI model rankings, release timelines, IPO odds, and tech policy markets that often intersect with world-headline risk.
ScreenOdds
Entertainment and culture prediction markets
Compare political and world-news attention with movie, awards, TV, and culture markets where narratives can move quickly.