Polymarket + Kalshi · refreshed every 10 min
Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines
What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.
$36.3M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h
Trending markets
by 24h volumeFed Decision in July?
74%Leader: No change
Iran leader end of 2026?
79%Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20%Leader: JD Vance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
<1%Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
19%Leader: Gavin Newsom
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
<1%July 31
Next French Presidential Election
31%Leader: Marine Le Pen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%Brazil Presidential Election
63%Leader: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Israel closes its airspace by...?
9%July 31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10%Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49%Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Biggest 24h movers
All movers →| # | Market | Probability | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wisconsin Governor Election Winner | 60% | +5.0pp | $1K |
| 2 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 25% | +3.0pp | $249K |
| 3 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 5% | -2.5pp | $37K |
| 4 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | 92% | +2.2pp | $40K |
| 5 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 54% | -2.0pp | $105K |
| 6 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | 11% | +2.0pp | $489 |
| 7 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 12% | -1.0pp | $6K |
| 8 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 10% | +1.0pp | $147K |
Election HQ
2026 Midterm Election Odds
Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.
Browse by topic
Daily briefing · June 13, 2026
What moved in world markets — June 13, 2026
5 markets that moved — read the briefing →
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