Polymarket + Kalshi · refreshed every 10 min
Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines
What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.
$30.5M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h
Trending markets
by 24h volumeUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
17%June 15
By date$10.3M 24h
Fed Decision in June?
>99%Leader: No change
Field$5.4M 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
14%June 12
By date$3.6M 24h
Peru Presidential Election Winner
96%Leader: Keiko Fujimori
Field$1.5M 24h
Presidential Election Winner 2028
16%Leader: Marco Rubio
Field$1.2M 24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
23%Leader: Gavin Newsom
Field$1.2M 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1%Yes / No$1.1M 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%Yes / No$1.0M 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
3%June 30
By date$1.0M 24h
Next French Presidential Election
28%Leader: Jordan Bardella
Field$974K 24h
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
66%June 30
By date$730K 24h
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49%Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Field$591K 24h
Biggest 24h movers
All movers →| # | Market | Probability | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Trump visit Pakistan by...? | 13% | +10.3pp | $970 |
| 2 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 79% | +7.0pp | $181K |
| 3 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...? | 1% | -4.7pp | $589K |
| 4 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | 88% | +4.0pp | $51K |
| 5 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 20% | +3.5pp | $9K |
| 6 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 18% | -2.5pp | $1.0M |
| 7 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 13% | +2.0pp | $9K |
| 8 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | 92% | -2.0pp | $28K |
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2026 Midterm Election Odds
Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.
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Daily briefing · June 12, 2026
What moved in world markets — June 12, 2026
5 markets that moved — read the briefing →