Polymarket + Kalshi · refreshed every 10 min
Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines
What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.
$8.3M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h
Trending markets
by 24h volumeIran leader end of 2026?
79%Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20%Leader: JD Vance
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
20%Leader: Gavin Newsom
Fed Decision in July?
77%Leader: No change
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49%Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
2%July 31
Next French Presidential Election
28%Leader: Marine Le Pen
Israel closes its airspace by...?
4%July 15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%Brazil Presidential Election
61%Leader: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
41%Leader: Gadi Eizenkot
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9%Biggest 24h movers
All movers →| # | Market | Probability | 24h change | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Russia capture Lyman by...? | 61% | +2.5pp | $3K |
| 2 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? | 6% | -1.5pp | $8K |
| 3 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 63% | -1.0pp | $30K |
| 4 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | 11% | +1.0pp | $24K |
| 5 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 18% | +1.0pp | $112K |
| 6 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 13% | +1.0pp | $4K |
| 7 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 9% | +1.0pp | $52K |
| 8 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | 95% | +1.0pp | $121K |
Election HQ
2026 Midterm Election Odds
Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.
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Daily briefing · June 13, 2026
What moved in world markets — June 13, 2026
5 markets that moved — read the briefing →
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