Polymarket + Kalshi · refreshed every 10 min

Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines

What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.

Today’s biggest movers Midterms 2026

$4.6M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h

Trending markets

by 24h volume

Brazil Presidential Election

89%

Leader: Flávio Bolsonaro

Field$1.6M 24h

Next French Presidential Election

41%

Leader: Marine Le Pen

Field$607K 24h

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 2026

By date$345K 24h

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

Leader: JD Vance

Field$286K 24h

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

18%

Leader: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Field$262K 24h

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31

By date$246K 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

17%

October 31

By date$238K 24h

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49%

Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Field$230K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

86%

October 31

By date$185K 24h

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

42%

Leader: Gadi Eizenkot

Field$178K 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

By date$142K 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

Yes / No$141K 24h

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Biggest 24h movers

All movers →

#	Market	Probability	24h change	24h volume
1	Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?	100%	+35.5pp	$545K
2	Next Premier of British Columbia	70%	+11.0pp	$11K
3	Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?	20%	+10.2pp	$406K
4	Next Mayor of Johannesburg?	62%	-6.5pp	$1K
5	Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner	64%	+3.0pp	$143K
6	Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?	22%	-2.5pp	$12K
7	VA-01 House Election Winner	56%	+2.0pp	$165
8	Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?	66%	+2.0pp	$22K

Election HQ

2026 Midterm Election Odds

Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.

View all races →

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Daily briefing · October 9, 2026

What moved in world markets — October 9, 2026

5 markets that moved — read the briefing →

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