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Live probabilities for the world’s biggest headlines

What traders with real money on the line think happens next — wars, elections, world leaders and the 2026 midterms, expressed as a single honest number.

Today’s biggest movers Midterms 2026

$19.0M traded across tracked markets in the last 24h

Trending markets

by 24h volume

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

52%

Leader: Benjamin Netanyahu

Field$15.1M 24h

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

49%

Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Field$999K 24h

Presidential Election Winner 2028

18%

Leader: JD Vance

Field$794K 24h

Next French Presidential Election

43%

Leader: Marine Le Pen

Field$626K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

95%

October 31

By date$329K 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

October 31

By date$320K 24h

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

17%

Leader: Gavin Newsom

Field$135K 24h

Netanyahu out by...?

23%

December 31

By date$117K 24h

California Governor Election Winner

97%

Leader: Xavier Becerra

Field$108K 24h

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31

By date$92K 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

19%

Yes / No$80K 24h

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 2026

By date$72K 24h

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Biggest 24h movers

All movers →

#	Market	Probability	24h change	24h volume
1	Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?	100%	+40.0pp	$480K
2	Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place	71%	-27.6pp	$166K
3	Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November	83%	+15.9pp	$13K
4	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?	93%	+9.5pp	$8K
5	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	91%	+6.0pp	$127K
6	NC-13 House Election Winner	63%	-5.5pp	$65K
7	NJ-02 House Election Winner	68%	-3.5pp	$31K
8	TX-35 House Election Winner	69%	+3.5pp	$1K

Election HQ

2026 Midterm Election Odds

Live win probabilities for 71 Senate and Governor races, plus the battle for chamber control.

View all races →

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Daily briefing · October 27, 2026

What moved in world markets — October 27, 2026

5 markets that moved — read the briefing →

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