Israel-Gaza War & Middle East Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction markets on Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East: ceasefire durability, hostage releases, Gaza's postwar governance, Netanyahu's political survival, Hezbollah and Lebanon escalation, and Saudi-Israel normalization. The phased ceasefire framework brokered in late 2025 left traders pricing each milestone — disarmament steps, reconstruction authority, election timing in Israel — as separate contracts. This hub collects them in one place, where odds move fast on regional headlines and often diverge sharply from media narratives.
Tracked markets
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
42%Leader: 20-24
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
62%Leader: Yashar
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
15%December 31
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
8%Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
6%Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
12%December 31
Will Israel annex any territory by...?
7%December 31, 2026
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
10%December 31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
22%December 31, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
56%Leader: Gadi Eizenkot
Netanyahu out by...?
54%December 31
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
5%December 31, 2026
- Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
- Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
- Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
- Israel military action against Yemen by...?
- Israel closes its airspace by...?
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
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