Israel-Gaza War & Middle East Odds — Live Probabilities

Prediction markets on Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East: ceasefire durability, hostage releases, Gaza's postwar governance, Netanyahu's political survival, Hezbollah and Lebanon escalation, and Saudi-Israel normalization. The phased ceasefire framework brokered in late 2025 left traders pricing each milestone — disarmament steps, reconstruction authority, election timing in Israel — as separate contracts. This hub collects them in one place, where odds move fast on regional headlines and often diverge sharply from media narratives.