Israel-Gaza War & Middle East Odds — Live Probabilities
Prediction markets on Israel, Gaza, and the wider Middle East: ceasefire durability, hostage releases, Gaza's postwar governance, Netanyahu's political survival, Hezbollah and Lebanon escalation, and Saudi-Israel normalization. The phased ceasefire framework brokered in late 2025 left traders pricing each milestone — disarmament steps, reconstruction authority, election timing in Israel — as separate contracts. This hub collects them in one place, where odds move fast on regional headlines and often diverge sharply from media narratives.
Tracked markets
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
50%Leader: Person M
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
50%Leader: Person I
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
97%Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
89%October 30
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
50%Leader: Candidate A
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
<1%September 30
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
43%Leader: 20-24
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
70%Leader: Yashar
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
8%December 31
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
5%Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
7%Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
12%December 31
- Will Israel annex any territory by...?
- Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Netanyahu out by...?
- Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
- Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
- Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
- Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
- Israel military action against Yemen by...?
- Israel closes its airspace by...?
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
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