GeoOdds

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? Odds

$630K total volume$3K 24hResolves by December 31, 2025Polymarket, 10-min refresh
5%implied chance
-0.6pp24h

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
December 31October 31, 202533%+208
June 30October 31, 20255%+2028
Implied
4.7%
American
+2028
Decimal
21.28
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 5% — roughly +2028 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

Related markets

Trade this on Polymarket →

Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.