GeoOdds

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...? Odds

$936K total volume$93 24hResolves by March 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
11%implied chance
+0.9pp24h

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
December 31, 2026December 31, 202611%+826
Implied
10.8%
American
+826
Decimal
9.26
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 11% — roughly +826 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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