GeoOdds

Biggest Movers

Markets ranked by 24-hour probability swing — where the news actually changed traders’ minds. Green means the odds rose; red means they fell.

#MarketProbability24h change24h volume
1$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?0%-32.9pp$1.2M
2Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?77%+26.0pp$556K
3Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?72%-9.0pp$2K
4Lima Mayoral Election Winner83%+8.8pp$5K
5AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?78%+8.5pp$5K
6Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner63%+7.0pp$3K
7US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)62%+3.0pp$169K
8WA-05 House Election Winner81%+3.0pp$1K
9Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?6%-3.0pp$978
10Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?27%-1.5pp$13K
11Which Senate races will be within 5%?23%-1.0pp$629
12Israel Election: Likud # of seats?42%+1.0pp$6K
13Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?17%+1.0pp$5K
14Florida Governor Election Winner82%-1.0pp$960
15China x Philippines military clash before 2027?29%+1.0pp$15K
16Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?7%-0.9pp$8K
17US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?1%+0.6pp$16K
18Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner>99%-0.5pp$14K
19Nigerian Presidential Election Winner74%+0.5pp$1K
20FL-28 House Election Winner94%+0.5pp—
21Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?90%-0.5pp$9K
22VA-03 House Election Winner97%+0.4pp—
23Iceland EU referendum passes?<1%-0.2pp$2K
24Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?98%-0.1pp$47K
25Massachusetts Governor Election Winner97%+0.1pp$25
26CA-24 House Election Winner97%-0.1pp$62
27Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?<1%-0.1pp$229K
28WA-09 House Election Winner96%+0.1pp—
29TX-06 House Election Winner96%0.0pp—
30Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place81%0.0pp$30K

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