Biggest Movers

Markets ranked by 24-hour probability swing — where the news actually changed traders’ minds. Green means the odds rose; red means they fell.

#	Market	Probability	24h change	24h volume
1	Will Russia capture Lyman by...?	61%	+2.5pp	$3K
2	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	14%	+1.5pp	$7K
3	Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?	6%	-1.5pp	$8K
4	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	63%	-1.0pp	$31K
5	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	11%	+1.0pp	$24K
6	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	18%	+1.0pp	$125K
7	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	9%	+1.0pp	$46K
8	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?	6%	-1.0pp	$11K
9	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?	95%	+0.9pp	$128K
10	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	11%	+0.5pp	$1K
11	Will Tim Walz resign by...?	7%	+0.5pp	$15
12	Will Russia capture Sumy by...?	10%	-0.5pp	$8
13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	5%	-0.4pp	$8K
14	Will US withdraw from NATO by...?	3%	+0.2pp	$455
15	2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?	3%	-0.1pp	$3K
16	WV-02 House Election Winner	94%	+0.1pp	—
17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	4%	-0.1pp	$13K
18	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	97%	+0.1pp	$360
19	WV-01 House Election Winner	94%	0.0pp	—
20	Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	77%	0.0pp	—
21	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?	11%	0.0pp	$17K
22	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?	6%	0.0pp	$487
23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?	8%	0.0pp	$37K
24	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	7%	0.0pp	$9K
25	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?	6%	0.0pp	$15
26	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	5%	0.0pp	$4
27	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?	3%	0.0pp	$1
28	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?	14%	0.0pp	$10
29	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	4%	0.0pp	$1K