GeoOdds

Biggest Movers

Markets ranked by 24-hour probability swing — where the news actually changed traders’ minds. Green means the odds rose; red means they fell.

#MarketProbability24h change24h volume
1Will Russia capture Lyman by...?56%+4.5pp$4K
2Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?55%-3.5pp$49K
3Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?7%+2.3pp$161
4Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?23%+2.0pp$220K
5WV-02 House Election Winner94%-1.1pp$265
6Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?8%-1.0pp$15K
7Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?5%-1.0pp$345
8Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?3%-0.6pp$11K
9Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?12%-0.5pp$535
10Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?7%-0.5pp$1K
11Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?92%-0.5pp$17K
12Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?2%-0.3pp$33
13Xi Jinping out before 2027?5%-0.1pp$18K
14Will US withdraw from NATO by...?3%-0.1pp$433
15Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?96%-0.1pp$157
162027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?89%0.0pp$7K
17WV-01 House Election Winner94%0.0pp—
18Wisconsin Governor Election Winner57%0.0pp—
19Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?10%0.0pp$1K
20Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4%0.0pp$21K
21Will Tim Walz resign by...?7%0.0pp$6
22Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?6%0.0pp$9K
23Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?5%0.0pp$11
24Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?13%0.0pp$2K
25Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?9%0.0pp$22K
26Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?8%0.0pp$2K
27Will Russia capture Sumy by...?7%0.0pp—
28Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?5%0.0pp$2K
29Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?6%0.0pp$3K