Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? Odds
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 31 | August 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| September 30 | August 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| October 31 | October 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| November 30 | October 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| December 31 | December 31, 2025 | <1% | — |
| March 31, 2026 | March 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| January 31, 2026 | March 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| February 28, 2026 | March 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| April 30, 2026 | April 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| May 31, 2026 | May 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| June 30, 2026 | June 30, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 19, 2026 | July 19, 2026 | <1% | — |
| July 31, 2026 | July 31, 2026 | <1% | — |
| August 15, 2026 | August 15, 2026 | <1% | — |
| August 31, 2026 | August 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
| September 30, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | >99% | — |
| December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | >99% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at >99%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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