Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? Odds
$8.4M total volume$38K 24hResolves by December 31, 2025Polymarket, 10-min refresh
92%implied chance
-0.1pp24h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | July 31, 2026 | 9% | +1043 |
| August 31, 2026 | August 31, 2026 | 53% | -111 |
| September 30, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | 76% | -308 |
| December 31, 2026 | December 31, 2026 | 92% | -1120 |
- Implied
- 91.8%
- American
- -1120
- Decimal
- 1.09
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 92% — roughly -1120 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Geopolitics
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Geopolitics
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Geopolitics
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Geopolitics
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?Geopolitics
- Will Russia capture Sumy by...?Geopolitics
Trade this on Polymarket →
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.