Russia-Ukraine War & Ceasefire Odds — Live Probabilities
Live odds on the Russia-Ukraine war: ceasefire timing, a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, territorial settlement terms, sanctions moves, and leadership risk in Moscow and Kyiv. As of June 2026 talks remain stalled — Zelenskyy has offered direct negotiations with European backing while Putin holds out for territorial concessions — and ceasefire contracts reprice on every diplomatic headline. This hub tracks those markets alongside longer-dated questions on NATO posture, frozen-asset transfers, and whether the war ends in 2026 at all.
Tracked markets
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
<1%Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
91%Dopropillia
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
71%Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
14%December 31
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
>99%Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
10%December 31
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
6%December 31
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
2%September 30
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
42%December 31
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
3%December 31
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
56%Leader: China
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
<1%- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
- NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
- How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
- European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
- EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
- Will Russia capture Sumy by...?
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
- Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
- Will any country leave NATO by...?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
- US x Russia military clash by...?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
- Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- Ukraine election held by...?
- Ukraine election called by...?
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
- Russian strike on Poland by...?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Russia nuclear test by...?
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?
- How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
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