Russia-Ukraine War & Ceasefire Odds — Live Probabilities

Live odds on the Russia-Ukraine war: ceasefire timing, a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, territorial settlement terms, sanctions moves, and leadership risk in Moscow and Kyiv. As of June 2026 talks remain stalled — Zelenskyy has offered direct negotiations with European backing while Putin holds out for territorial concessions — and ceasefire contracts reprice on every diplomatic headline. This hub tracks those markets alongside longer-dated questions on NATO posture, frozen-asset transfers, and whether the war ends in 2026 at all.