GeoOdds

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? Odds

$1.3M total volume$626K 24hResolves by October 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
99%implied chance
+70.3pp24h

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
October 31November 1, 202699%-8233
November 15November 16, 2026>99%-19900
November 30December 1, 2026>99%-66567
December 31January 1, 2027>99%-99900
Implied
98.8%
American
-8233
Decimal
1.01
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 99% — roughly -8233 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

Related markets

New to prediction markets?

New traders get a $20 bonus

Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.

Trade this on Polymarket →

New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.