2026 Midterm Election Odds — Live Polymarket Probabilities
Every Senate and Governor race on one board: who’s favored, by how much, and which party prediction-market traders expect to control the chamber. Prices refresh every 10 minutes.
Balance of power — Senate control
56%implied chance
Republican Party
44%implied chance
Democratic Party
Senate races
| State | Incumbent | Party | Rating | Live leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican95% |
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan | R | Lean R | Mary Peltola60% |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| Delaware | Chris Coons | D | Safe D | Democrat95% |
| Floridaspecial | Ashley Moody | R | Likely R | Republican89% |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | D | Lean D | Democrat87% |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | R | Safe R | Republican95% |
| Illinois | Open seat | D | Safe D | Juliana Stratton (D)94% |
| Iowa | Open seat | R | Lean R | Republican59% |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall | R | Safe R | Republican83% |
| Kentucky | Open seat | R | Safe R | Andy Barr (R)92% |
| Louisiana | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican93% |
| Maine | Susan Collins | R | Toss-up | Democrat67% |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey | D | Safe D | Democrat95% |
| Michigan | Open seat | D | Lean D | Democrat70% |
| Minnesota | Open seat | D | Likely D | Democrat94% |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R | Safe R | Republican92% |
| Montana | Open seat | R | Likely R | Republican90% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | R | Lean R | Republican72% |
| New Hampshire | Open seat | D | Lean D | Democrat85% |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | D | Safe D | Democrat93% |
| North Carolina | Open seat | R | Lean D | Roy Cooper (D)87% |
| Ohiospecial | Jon Husted | R | Toss-up | Jon Husted (R)52% |
| Oklahoma | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | D | Safe D | Democrat95% |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| South Carolina | Lindsey Graham | R | Likely R | Republican91% |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Texas | Open seat | R | Lean R | Ken Paxton (R)56% |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | D | Safe D | Republican95% |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | R | Safe R | Republican95% |
| Wyoming | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican95% |
Governor races
| State | Incumbent | Party | Rating | Live leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican92% |
| Alaska | Open seat | R | Toss-up | Tom Begich36% |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | D | Lean D | Democrat79% |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| California | Open seat | D | Safe D | Xavier Becerra93% |
| Colorado | Open seat | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| Florida | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican82% |
| Georgia | Open seat | R | Toss-up | Democrat57% |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| Idaho | Brad Little | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Illinois | J.B. Pritzker | D | Safe D | Democrat94% |
| Iowa | Open seat | R | Lean R | Democrat65% |
| Kansas | Open seat | D | Lean R | Republican75% |
| Maine | Open seat | D | Likely D | Democrat94% |
| Maryland | Wes Moore | D | Safe D | Democrat93% |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | D | Safe D | Democrat95% |
| Michigan | Open seat | D | Lean D | Democrat85% |
| Minnesota | Open seat | D | Likely D | Democrat94% |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | R | Safe R | Republican86% |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo | R | Toss-up | Democrat52% |
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte | R | Likely R | Republican78% |
| New Mexico | Open seat | D | Likely D | Democrat89% |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | D | Likely D | Democrat93% |
| Ohio | Open seat | R | Lean R | Republican56% |
| Oklahoma | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican95% |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | D | Likely D | Democrat83% |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | D | Likely D | Democrat94% |
| Rhode Island | Dan McKee | D | Safe D | Democrat92% |
| South Carolina | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican92% |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden | R | Safe R | Republican93% |
| Tennessee | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican91% |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | R | Likely R | Republican86% |
| Wisconsin | Open seat | D | Lean D | Democrat57% |
| Wyoming | Open seat | R | Safe R | Republican94% |
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