2026 Midterm Election Odds — Live Polymarket Probabilities
Every Senate and Governor race on one board: who’s favored, by how much, and which party prediction-market traders expect to control the chamber. Prices refresh every 10 minutes.
Balance of power — Senate control
65%implied chance
Democratic Party
36%implied chance
Republican Party
Senate races
| State | Incumbent | Party | Rating | Live leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Open seat | R | Safe R | Barry Moore (R)>99% |
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan | R | Lean R | Mary Peltola75% |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton | R | Safe R | Tom Cotton (R) 95% |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper | D | Safe D | John Hickenlooper (D)>99% |
| Delaware | Chris Coons | D | Safe D | Democrat98% |
| Floridaspecial | Ashley Moody | R | Likely R | Ashley Moody (R)91% |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | D | Lean D | Jon Ossoff (D) 96% |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | R | Safe R | Jim Risch (R)96% |
| Illinois | Open seat | D | Safe D | Juliana Stratton (D)98% |
| Iowa | Open seat | R | Lean R | Ashley Hinson (R)58% |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall | R | Safe R | Roger Marshall (R)63% |
| Kentucky | Open seat | R | Safe R | Andy Barr (R)98% |
| Louisiana | Open seat | R | Safe R | Julia Letlow (R)92% |
| Maine | Susan Collins | R | Toss-up | Troy Jackson (D)60% |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey | D | Safe D | Ed Markey (D)98% |
| Michigan | Open seat | D | Lean D | Abdul El-Sayed (D)69% |
| Minnesota | Open seat | D | Likely D | Peggy Flanagan (D)86% |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)87% |
| Montana | Open seat | R | Likely R | Kurt Alme (R) 92% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | R | Lean R | Pete Ricketts (R)72% |
| New Hampshire | Open seat | D | Lean D | Chris Pappas (D)92% |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker | D | Safe D | Cory Booker (D)98% |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | D | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján (D)98% |
| North Carolina | Open seat | R | Lean D | Roy Cooper (D)96% |
| Ohiospecial | Jon Husted | R | Toss-up | Sherrod Brown (D)69% |
| Oklahoma | Open seat | R | Safe R | Kevin Hern (R)98% |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | D | Safe D | Jeff Merkley (D)99% |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed | D | Safe D | Jack Reed (D)98% |
| South Carolina | Lindsey Graham | R | Likely R | Darline Graham Nordone (R)81% |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | R | Safe R | Mike Rounds (R)95% |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty | R | Safe R | Bill Hagerty (R)96% |
| Texas | Open seat | R | Lean R | James Talarico (D)65% |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | D | Safe D | Shelley Moore Capito (R)98% |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | R | Safe R | Shelley Moore Capito (R)98% |
| Wyoming | Open seat | R | Safe R | Harriet Hageman (R) 98% |
Governor races
| State | Incumbent | Party | Rating | Live leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Open seat | R | Safe R | Tommy Tuberville (R)96% |
| Alaska | Open seat | R | Toss-up | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins89% |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | D | Lean D | Katie Hobbs (D)91% |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R | Safe R | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)96% |
| California | Open seat | D | Safe D | Xavier Becerra97% |
| Colorado | Open seat | D | Safe D | Phil Weiser (D)97% |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | D | Safe D | Ned Lamont (D)97% |
| Florida | Open seat | R | Safe R | Byron Donalds (R) 82% |
| Georgia | Open seat | R | Toss-up | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)63% |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | D | Safe D | Josh Green (D)97% |
| Idaho | Brad Little | R | Safe R | Brad Little (R)98% |
| Illinois | J.B. Pritzker | D | Safe D | JB Pritzker (D)97% |
| Iowa | Open seat | R | Lean R | Rob Sand (D)86% |
| Kansas | Open seat | D | Lean R | Ty Masterson (R)78% |
| Maine | Open seat | D | Likely D | Hannah Pingree (D)96% |
| Maryland | Wes Moore | D | Safe D | Wes Moore (D)98% |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | D | Safe D | Maura Healey (D)96% |
| Michigan | Open seat | D | Lean D | Jocelyn Benson (D)93% |
| Minnesota | Open seat | D | Likely D | Amy Klobuchar (D)95% |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | R | Safe R | Jim Pillen (R)83% |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo | R | Toss-up | Aaron Ford (D)69% |
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte | R | Likely R | Kelly Ayotte (R)93% |
| New Mexico | Open seat | D | Likely D | Deb Haaland (D)94% |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | D | Likely D | Kathy Hochul (D)96% |
| Ohio | Open seat | R | Lean R | Amy Acton (D)83% |
| Oklahoma | Open seat | R | Safe R | Mike Mazzei (R)92% |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | D | Likely D | Tina Kotek (D)84% |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | D | Likely D | Josh Shapiro (D)98% |
| Rhode Island | Dan McKee | D | Safe D | Helena Foulkes (D)96% |
| South Carolina | Open seat | R | Safe R | Alan Wilson (R)94% |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden | R | Safe R | Larry Rhoden (R)97% |
| Tennessee | Open seat | R | Safe R | Marsha Blackburn (R)94% |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | R | Safe R | Greg Abbott (R)65% |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | R | Likely R | Phil Scott (R)76% |
| Wisconsin | Open seat | D | Lean D | David Crowley (D)81% |
| Wyoming | Open seat | R | Safe R | Eric Barlow (R)98% |
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