Florida Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear Republican frontrunner heading into the August primary, with first lady Casey DeSantis having passed on the race. Florida's 13-point Trump margin in 2024 leaves Democrats with little path. Forecasters rate the general safe Republican; the primary markets carried all the early action.
Favorite: Byron Donalds (R)
Current standings
- 1Byron Donalds (R) 83%
- 2David Jolly (D)19%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Byron Donalds (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Florida Governor race in 2026?
Byron Donalds (R) leads on Polymarket at 83%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Florida governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear Republican frontrunner heading into the August primary, with first lady Casey DeSantis having passed on the race. Florida's 13-point Trump margin in 2024 leaves Democrats with little path. Forecasters rate the general safe Republican; the primary markets carried all the early action.
Where can I trade the Florida governor odds?
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