Florida Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear Republican frontrunner heading into the August primary, with first lady Casey DeSantis having passed on the race. Florida's 13-point Trump margin in 2024 leaves Democrats with little path. Forecasters rate the general safe Republican; the primary markets carried all the early action.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican78%
- 2Democrat23%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Florida Governor race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 78%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Florida governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear Republican frontrunner heading into the August primary, with first lady Casey DeSantis having passed on the race. Florida's 13-point Trump margin in 2024 leaves Democrats with little path. Forecasters rate the general safe Republican; the primary markets carried all the early action.
Where can I trade the Florida governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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