Minnesota Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Tim Walz abandoned his third-term bid in January 2026 amid the state welfare-fraud scandal, and Senator Amy Klobuchar stepped in as the Democratic standard-bearer — with the wrinkle that a win would let her hand-pick circumstances for her own Senate seat's replacement. Klobuchar's perennial 20-point statewide margins put markets above 90 percent for Democrats. The fraud-scandal backdrop is the residual tail risk.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat93%
- 2Republican6%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Minnesota Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is the Minnesota governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Tim Walz (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Tim Walz abandoned his third-term bid in January 2026 amid the state welfare-fraud scandal, and Senator Amy Klobuchar stepped in as the Democratic standard-bearer — with the wrinkle that a win would let her hand-pick circumstances for her own Senate seat's replacement. Klobuchar's perennial 20-point statewide margins put markets above 90 percent for Democrats. The fraud-scandal backdrop is the residual tail risk.
Where can I trade the Minnesota governor odds?
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