Arkansas U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Tom Cotton is running for a third term in one of the most Republican states in the country, facing Democrat Hallie Shoffner in November. Every major forecaster rates the seat safe for the GOP. Any market action here is essentially a probability floor test rather than a genuine contest.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican93%
- 2Democrat5%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is Tom Cotton running for re-election?
Tom Cotton (R) is the incumbent in this Arkansas senate race. Tom Cotton is running for a third term in one of the most Republican states in the country, facing Democrat Hallie Shoffner in November. Every major forecaster rates the seat safe for the GOP. Any market action here is essentially a probability floor test rather than a genuine contest.
Where can I trade the Arkansas senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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