GeoOdds

Arkansas U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds

AR · U.S. Senate · Class 2Safe R
Incumbent:Tom CottonR

Tom Cotton is running for a third term in one of the most Republican states in the country, facing Democrat Hallie Shoffner in November. Every major forecaster rates the seat safe for the GOP. Any market action here is essentially a probability floor test rather than a genuine contest.

95%implied chance
-0.3pp24h

Favorite: Republican

Current standings

  1. 1
    Republican95%
  2. 2
    Democrat4%
  3. 3
    Person A—
  4. 4
    Person C—
  5. 5
    Person E—
  6. 6
    Person G—
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Republican

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

Republican leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.

Is Tom Cotton running for re-election?

Tom Cotton (R) is the incumbent in this Arkansas senate race. Tom Cotton is running for a third term in one of the most Republican states in the country, facing Democrat Hallie Shoffner in November. Every major forecaster rates the seat safe for the GOP. Any market action here is essentially a probability floor test rather than a genuine contest.

Where can I trade the Arkansas senate odds?

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