Louisiana U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Bill Cassidy became the cycle's first incumbent casualty, finishing third in Louisiana's new closed Republican primary in May 2026 — punishment from a base that never forgave his impeachment vote. Rep. Julia Letlow and former Rep. John Fleming meet in a June 27 runoff for the nomination. Whoever emerges is a prohibitive favorite in November, so markets center on the runoff rather than the general.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican89%
- 2Democrat11%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person F—
- 5Person J—
- 6Person C—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 89%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Louisiana senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Bill Cassidy became the cycle's first incumbent casualty, finishing third in Louisiana's new closed Republican primary in May 2026 — punishment from a base that never forgave his impeachment vote. Rep. Julia Letlow and former Rep. John Fleming meet in a June 27 runoff for the nomination. Whoever emerges is a prohibitive favorite in November, so markets center on the runoff rather than the general.
Where can I trade the Louisiana senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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