Minnesota U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Tina Smith is retiring after two terms, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan the Democratic frontrunner to succeed her — she would be the first Native American woman elected to the Senate. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and markets price a Democratic hold near 90 percent. The seat only matters to Senate-control math in a genuine red-wave scenario.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat91%
- 2Republican11%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person D—
- 5Person F—
- 6Person H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is the Minnesota senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Tina Smith (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Tina Smith is retiring after two terms, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan the Democratic frontrunner to succeed her — she would be the first Native American woman elected to the Senate. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the chamber since 2002, and markets price a Democratic hold near 90 percent. The seat only matters to Senate-control math in a genuine red-wave scenario.
Where can I trade the Minnesota senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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