New Mexico Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, and former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic nomination, putting her on track to become the nation's first Native American woman elected governor. Republican Greggory Hull, the Rio Rancho mayor, needs a major upset in a state that has drifted steadily blue. Markets price the Democratic hold around 85 percent.
Favorite: Deb Haaland (D)
Current standings
- 1Deb Haaland (D)93%
- 2Gregg Hull (R)7%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option F—
- 5Option J—
- 6Option C—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Deb Haaland (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the New Mexico Governor race in 2026?
Deb Haaland (D) leads on Polymarket at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is the New Mexico governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, and former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic nomination, putting her on track to become the nation's first Native American woman elected governor. Republican Greggory Hull, the Rio Rancho mayor, needs a major upset in a state that has drifted steadily blue. Markets price the Democratic hold around 85 percent.
Where can I trade the New Mexico governor odds?
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