New Mexico Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, and former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic nomination, putting her on track to become the nation's first Native American woman elected governor. Republican Greggory Hull, the Rio Rancho mayor, needs a major upset in a state that has drifted steadily blue. Markets price the Democratic hold around 85 percent.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat88%
- 2Republican13%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option F—
- 5Option J—
- 6Option C—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the New Mexico Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 88%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is the New Mexico governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, and former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland won the Democratic nomination, putting her on track to become the nation's first Native American woman elected governor. Republican Greggory Hull, the Rio Rancho mayor, needs a major upset in a state that has drifted steadily blue. Markets price the Democratic hold around 85 percent.
Where can I trade the New Mexico governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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