GeoOdds

Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds

MI · U.S. Senate · Class 2Lean DOpen seat
Incumbent:Open seat

Gary Peters's retirement opened a swing-state seat that Republicans nearly flipped in 2024. Democrats pick among Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed in an August 4 primary, while Republicans have largely consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers for a third Senate try. Markets give Democrats roughly a 70 percent hold probability, but Michigan's recent statewide margins keep this contract liquid and volatile.

66%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Favorite: Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Current standings

  1. 1
    Abdul El-Sayed (D)66%
  2. 2
    Mike Rogers (R)36%
  3. 3
    Person B—
  4. 4
    Person D—
  5. 5
    Person F—
  6. 6
    Person H—
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads on Polymarket at 66%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.

Is the Michigan senate seat open in 2026?

Yes. Incumbent Gary Peters (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Gary Peters's retirement opened a swing-state seat that Republicans nearly flipped in 2024. Democrats pick among Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed in an August 4 primary, while Republicans have largely consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers for a third Senate try. Markets give Democrats roughly a 70 percent hold probability, but Michigan's recent statewide margins keep this contract liquid and volatile.

Where can I trade the Michigan senate odds?

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