Michigan U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Gary Peters's retirement opened a swing-state seat that Republicans nearly flipped in 2024. Democrats pick among Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed in an August 4 primary, while Republicans have largely consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers for a third Senate try. Markets give Democrats roughly a 70 percent hold probability, but Michigan's recent statewide margins keep this contract liquid and volatile.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat72%
- 2Republican28%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person D—
- 5Person F—
- 6Person H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 72%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is the Michigan senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Gary Peters (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Gary Peters's retirement opened a swing-state seat that Republicans nearly flipped in 2024. Democrats pick among Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed in an August 4 primary, while Republicans have largely consolidated behind former Rep. Mike Rogers for a third Senate try. Markets give Democrats roughly a 70 percent hold probability, but Michigan's recent statewide margins keep this contract liquid and volatile.
Where can I trade the Michigan senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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