Florida U.S. Senate Special Race 2026 — Odds
Appointed senator Ashley Moody is defending the seat Marco Rubio vacated to become Secretary of State, in a November 3 special election for the final two years of his term. Florida's rightward drift makes Moody a clear favorite, with primaries set for August 18. The market question is whether Democrats can make an appointed incumbent sweat in a state they have not won statewide since 2018.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican81%
- 2Democrat19%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person B—
- 5Person D—
- 6Person F—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 81%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R.
Is Ashley Moody running for re-election?
Ashley Moody (R) is the incumbent in this Florida senate race. Appointed senator Ashley Moody is defending the seat Marco Rubio vacated to become Secretary of State, in a November 3 special election for the final two years of his term. Florida's rightward drift makes Moody a clear favorite, with primaries set for August 18. The market question is whether Democrats can make an appointed incumbent sweat in a state they have not won statewide since 2018.
Where can I trade the Florida senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.