Texas Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Greg Abbott is seeking a record-tying fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, armed with a nine-figure war chest. Abbott has never won a governor's race by single digits, and forecasters rate the contest safe Republican. The contract mostly interests traders pairing it against the much tighter Paxton-Talarico Senate market on the same ballot.
Favorite: Greg Abbott (R)
Current standings
- 1Greg Abbott (R)69%
- 2Gina Hinojosa (D) 31%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option B—
- 5Option C—
- 6Option D—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Greg Abbott (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Texas Governor race in 2026?
Greg Abbott (R) leads on Polymarket at 69%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is Greg Abbott running for re-election?
Greg Abbott (R) is the incumbent in this Texas governor race. Greg Abbott is seeking a record-tying fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, armed with a nine-figure war chest. Abbott has never won a governor's race by single digits, and forecasters rate the contest safe Republican. The contract mostly interests traders pairing it against the much tighter Paxton-Talarico Senate market on the same ballot.
Where can I trade the Texas governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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