Iowa Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Kim Reynolds's retirement created Iowa's first open governorship since 2006, pitting Republican Zach Lahn against State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office and a record-breaking fundraiser. Sand's cross-party brand keeps markets closer than Iowa's red lean would suggest, with the GOP priced in the low 60s. This is one of the few governor races where forecasters and traders openly disagree.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat62%
- 2Republican39%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Iowa Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 62%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.
Is the Iowa governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Kim Reynolds's retirement created Iowa's first open governorship since 2006, pitting Republican Zach Lahn against State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office and a record-breaking fundraiser. Sand's cross-party brand keeps markets closer than Iowa's red lean would suggest, with the GOP priced in the low 60s. This is one of the few governor races where forecasters and traders openly disagree.
Where can I trade the Iowa governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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