GeoOdds

Iowa Governor Race 2026 — Odds

IA · GovernorLean ROpen seat
Incumbent:Open seat

Kim Reynolds's retirement created Iowa's first open governorship since 2006, pitting Republican Zach Lahn against State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office and a record-breaking fundraiser. Sand's cross-party brand keeps markets closer than Iowa's red lean would suggest, with the GOP priced in the low 60s. This is one of the few governor races where forecasters and traders openly disagree.

70%implied chance
+1.5pp24h

Favorite: Rob Sand (D)

Current standings

  1. 1
    Rob Sand (D)70%
  2. 2
    Zach Lahn (R)26%
  3. 3
    Option A
  4. 4
    Option C
  5. 5
    Option E
  6. 6
    Option G
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Rob Sand (D)

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Iowa Governor race in 2026?

Rob Sand (D) leads on Polymarket at 70%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.

Is the Iowa governor seat open in 2026?

Yes. Incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Kim Reynolds's retirement created Iowa's first open governorship since 2006, pitting Republican Zach Lahn against State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office and a record-breaking fundraiser. Sand's cross-party brand keeps markets closer than Iowa's red lean would suggest, with the GOP priced in the low 60s. This is one of the few governor races where forecasters and traders openly disagree.

Where can I trade the Iowa governor odds?

These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.

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