Hawaii Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Josh Green, the physician-governor who steered Hawaii through the Maui wildfire recovery, is seeking a second term. Hawaii has elected exactly one Republican governor since statehood-era realignment, and this cycle offers no sign of an upset. Safe Democratic across all raters.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat96%
- 2Republican2%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Hawaii Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 96%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is Josh Green running for re-election?
Josh Green (D) is the incumbent in this Hawaii governor race. Josh Green, the physician-governor who steered Hawaii through the Maui wildfire recovery, is seeking a second term. Hawaii has elected exactly one Republican governor since statehood-era realignment, and this cycle offers no sign of an upset. Safe Democratic across all raters.
Where can I trade the Hawaii governor odds?
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