Oregon Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Tina Kotek faces a rematch with Republican Christine Drazan, who held her to a 3.4-point win in 2022 when an independent split the vote. Without a strong third candidate, Oregon's blue fundamentals reassert themselves and markets price Kotek around 83 percent. Portland-area quality-of-life issues remain the Republican's only real opening.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat86%
- 2Republican14%
- 3Option D—
- 4Option H—
- 5Option A—
- 6Option E—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Oregon Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 86%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is Tina Kotek running for re-election?
Tina Kotek (D) is the incumbent in this Oregon governor race. Tina Kotek faces a rematch with Republican Christine Drazan, who held her to a 3.4-point win in 2022 when an independent split the vote. Without a strong third candidate, Oregon's blue fundamentals reassert themselves and markets price Kotek around 83 percent. Portland-area quality-of-life issues remain the Republican's only real opening.
Where can I trade the Oregon governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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