Vermont Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Phil Scott, a Republican who routinely wins the bluest state in the country by landslides, is running for a sixth two-year term. His personal brand has proven immune to Vermont's partisan lean, and markets price him near 88 percent. The only real risk priced in is a retirement-style surprise or an unusually strong Democratic surge.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican83%
- 2Democrat10%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Vermont Governor race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 83%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R.
Is Phil Scott running for re-election?
Phil Scott (R) is the incumbent in this Vermont governor race. Phil Scott, a Republican who routinely wins the bluest state in the country by landslides, is running for a sixth two-year term. His personal brand has proven immune to Vermont's partisan lean, and markets price him near 88 percent. The only real risk priced in is a retirement-style surprise or an unusually strong Democratic surge.
Where can I trade the Vermont governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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