Wisconsin Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Tony Evers declined a third term, opening the governorship in America's most evenly divided state, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez among the Democrats vying against a Republican field led by Washington County executive Josh Schoemann and Rep. Tom Tiffany. Markets give Democrats roughly 80 percent, richer than the Lean D consensus rating. Any Wisconsin statewide race within the margin of error is the default assumption — that is the trade.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat80%
- 2Republican18%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Wisconsin Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 80%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is the Wisconsin governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Tony Evers (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Tony Evers declined a third term, opening the governorship in America's most evenly divided state, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez among the Democrats vying against a Republican field led by Washington County executive Josh Schoemann and Rep. Tom Tiffany. Markets give Democrats roughly 80 percent, richer than the Lean D consensus rating. Any Wisconsin statewide race within the margin of error is the default assumption — that is the trade.
Where can I trade the Wisconsin governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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