Iowa U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Joni Ernst's retirement set up an open-seat fight between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist and state legislator. Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely to Lean Republican in early June 2026, a sign Democrats' overperformance streak has forecasters hedging. Markets give Hinson roughly a 60 percent edge, making Iowa one of the livelier mispricing candidates on the Senate map.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican60%
- 2Democrat41%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person E—
- 5Person I—
- 6Person C—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 60%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.
Is the Iowa senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Joni Ernst (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Joni Ernst's retirement set up an open-seat fight between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist and state legislator. Cook Political Report shifted the race from Likely to Lean Republican in early June 2026, a sign Democrats' overperformance streak has forecasters hedging. Markets give Hinson roughly a 60 percent edge, making Iowa one of the livelier mispricing candidates on the Senate map.
Where can I trade the Iowa senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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