North Carolina U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Thom Tillis's retirement — announced after he crossed President Trump on the 2025 reconciliation bill — turned North Carolina into Democrats' best flip opportunity. Former Governor Roy Cooper, who has never lost a statewide race, faces former RNC chair Michael Whatley. Markets price Cooper around 85 percent, a striking number for a state Democrats have not won a Senate race in since 2008, making this the most asymmetric contract on the board.
Favorite: Roy Cooper (D)
Current standings
- 1Roy Cooper (D)85%
- 2Michael Whatley (R)16%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Roy Cooper (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Roy Cooper (D) leads on Polymarket at 85%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is the North Carolina senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Thom Tillis's retirement — announced after he crossed President Trump on the 2025 reconciliation bill — turned North Carolina into Democrats' best flip opportunity. Former Governor Roy Cooper, who has never lost a statewide race, faces former RNC chair Michael Whatley. Markets price Cooper around 85 percent, a striking number for a state Democrats have not won a Senate race in since 2008, making this the most asymmetric contract on the board.
Where can I trade the North Carolina senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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