Texas U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Four-term incumbent John Cornyn was knocked out in the Republican primary, leaving scandal-scarred Attorney General Ken Paxton to carry the GOP banner against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a viral-fundraising phenom. Paxton's impeachment baggage is exactly the candidate-quality risk that has cost Republicans winnable races before, and markets price the hold below 60 percent. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 — which is why this is the most-watched longshot contract of 2026.
Favorite: Ken Paxton (R)
Current standings
- 1Ken Paxton (R)56%
- 2James Talarico (D)44%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person D—
- 5Person F—
- 6Person H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Ken Paxton (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ken Paxton (R) leads on Polymarket at 56%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.
Is the Texas senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent John Cornyn (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Four-term incumbent John Cornyn was knocked out in the Republican primary, leaving scandal-scarred Attorney General Ken Paxton to carry the GOP banner against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a viral-fundraising phenom. Paxton's impeachment baggage is exactly the candidate-quality risk that has cost Republicans winnable races before, and markets price the hold below 60 percent. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994 — which is why this is the most-watched longshot contract of 2026.
Where can I trade the Texas senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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