New Hampshire U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Jeanne Shaheen's retirement after three terms opened a seat Democrats must defend, with Rep. Chris Pappas the clear frontrunner and former Sen. Scott Brown leading the Republican side. New Hampshire's federal elections have broken Democratic for a decade, and markets put the hold above 80 percent. Ratings remain a notch more cautious at Lean D, leaving room for a spread trade between forecasters and prices.
Favorite: Chris Pappas (D)
Current standings
- 1Chris Pappas (D)82%
- 2John E. Sununu (R)18%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Chris Pappas (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Chris Pappas (D) leads on Polymarket at 82%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is the New Hampshire senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement after three terms opened a seat Democrats must defend, with Rep. Chris Pappas the clear frontrunner and former Sen. Scott Brown leading the Republican side. New Hampshire's federal elections have broken Democratic for a decade, and markets put the hold above 80 percent. Ratings remain a notch more cautious at Lean D, leaving room for a spread trade between forecasters and prices.
Where can I trade the New Hampshire senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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