South Dakota Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Larry Rhoden, elevated from lieutenant governor when Kristi Noem joined the Trump cabinet in January 2025, is seeking a full term of his own. Democrat Dan Ahlers awaits, but South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974. Markets price this among the safest Republican holds of the cycle.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican95%
- 2Democrat5%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the South Dakota Governor race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is Larry Rhoden running for re-election?
Larry Rhoden (R) is the incumbent in this South Dakota governor race. Larry Rhoden, elevated from lieutenant governor when Kristi Noem joined the Trump cabinet in January 2025, is seeking a full term of his own. Democrat Dan Ahlers awaits, but South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974. Markets price this among the safest Republican holds of the cycle.
Where can I trade the South Dakota governor odds?
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