New York Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term with Rep. Elise Stefanik mounting the Republican challenge, hoping to replicate Lee Zeldin's surprisingly close 2022 run. Hochul's soft approval ratings and the Mamdani-era turbulence in New York politics keep the race rated only Likely D despite the state's heavy blue lean. Markets hold Hochul near 90 percent, leaving a visible gap against the more cautious forecaster consensus.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat88%
- 2Republican12%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the New York Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 88%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is Kathy Hochul running for re-election?
Kathy Hochul (D) is the incumbent in this New York governor race. Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term with Rep. Elise Stefanik mounting the Republican challenge, hoping to replicate Lee Zeldin's surprisingly close 2022 run. Hochul's soft approval ratings and the Mamdani-era turbulence in New York politics keep the race rated only Likely D despite the state's heavy blue lean. Markets hold Hochul near 90 percent, leaving a visible gap against the more cautious forecaster consensus.
Where can I trade the New York governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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