Tennessee Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Bill Lee is term-limited, and Senator Marsha Blackburn is the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination — a win would let her successor be appointed to her Senate seat, a detail Senate-control traders track closely. Tennessee's 30-point statewide margins make the general safe Republican. The appointment domino, not the race itself, is the market story.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican88%
- 2Democrat7%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Tennessee Governor race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 88%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Tennessee governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Bill Lee (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Bill Lee is term-limited, and Senator Marsha Blackburn is the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination — a win would let her successor be appointed to her Senate seat, a detail Senate-control traders track closely. Tennessee's 30-point statewide margins make the general safe Republican. The appointment domino, not the race itself, is the market story.
Where can I trade the Tennessee governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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