Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Two-term Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election, but former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola's entry instantly made Alaska a watch-list race. The state's top-four primary on August 18 and ranked-choice general add real model uncertainty, and a namesake 'second Dan Sullivan' filing has injected ballot-confusion drama. Markets price Sullivan as only a modest favorite, so this is one of the cheaper Republican-hold contracts on the 2026 board.
Favorite: Mary Peltola
Current standings
- 1Mary Peltola62%
- 2Dan Sullivan38%
- 3Dustin Darden<1%
- 4Ann Diener<1%
- 5Richard Grayson<1%
- 6Candidate A—
- ·Others (23 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Mary Peltola
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Mary Peltola leads on Polymarket at 62%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.
Is Dan Sullivan running for re-election?
Dan Sullivan (R) is the incumbent in this Alaska senate race. Two-term Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election, but former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola's entry instantly made Alaska a watch-list race. The state's top-four primary on August 18 and ranked-choice general add real model uncertainty, and a namesake 'second Dan Sullivan' filing has injected ballot-confusion drama. Markets price Sullivan as only a modest favorite, so this is one of the cheaper Republican-hold contracts on the 2026 board.
Where can I trade the Alaska senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
Fee-free geopolitics markets. 18+.