GeoOdds

Alaska U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds

AK · U.S. Senate · Class 2Lean R
Incumbent:Dan SullivanR

Two-term Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election, but former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola's entry instantly made Alaska a watch-list race. The state's top-four primary on August 18 and ranked-choice general add real model uncertainty, and a namesake 'second Dan Sullivan' filing has injected ballot-confusion drama. Markets price Sullivan as only a modest favorite, so this is one of the cheaper Republican-hold contracts on the 2026 board.

52%implied chance
-1.5pp24h

Favorite: Mary Peltola

Current standings

  1. 1
    Mary Peltola52%
  2. 2
    Dan Sullivan49%
  3. 3
    Dustin Darden<1%
  4. 4
    Ann Diener<1%
  5. 5
    Richard Grayson<1%
  6. 6
    Candidate A—
  7. ·
    Others (23 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Mary Peltola

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Mary Peltola leads on Polymarket at 52%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.

Is Dan Sullivan running for re-election?

Dan Sullivan (R) is the incumbent in this Alaska senate race. Two-term Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election, but former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola's entry instantly made Alaska a watch-list race. The state's top-four primary on August 18 and ranked-choice general add real model uncertainty, and a namesake 'second Dan Sullivan' filing has injected ballot-confusion drama. Markets price Sullivan as only a modest favorite, so this is one of the cheaper Republican-hold contracts on the 2026 board.

Where can I trade the Alaska senate odds?

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