Kentucky U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Mitch McConnell's retirement ends a four-decade Senate run and hands Republicans an open seat that Rep. Andy Barr won the nomination to defend against Democrat Charles Booker. Kentucky's federal partisanship makes Barr a heavy favorite despite Booker's statewide name recognition. The seat is rated safe Republican; the real story was the GOP primary, which Barr won after a costly fight.
Favorite: Andy Barr (R)
Current standings
- 1Andy Barr (R)87%
- 2Charles Booker (D)30%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Andy Barr (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?
Andy Barr (R) leads on Polymarket at 87%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Kentucky senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Mitch McConnell's retirement ends a four-decade Senate run and hands Republicans an open seat that Rep. Andy Barr won the nomination to defend against Democrat Charles Booker. Kentucky's federal partisanship makes Barr a heavy favorite despite Booker's statewide name recognition. The seat is rated safe Republican; the real story was the GOP primary, which Barr won after a costly fight.
Where can I trade the Kentucky senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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