Oregon U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Jeff Merkley is seeking a fourth term against Republican David Smith in a state that last elected a GOP senator in 2002. All major raters score Oregon safe Democratic. This contract exists mainly to complete Senate-control arithmetic.
Favorite: Jeff Merkley (D)
Current standings
- 1Jeff Merkley (D)97%
- 2David Brock Smith (R)2%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person D—
- 5Person F—
- 6Person H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Jeff Merkley (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
Jeff Merkley (D) leads on Polymarket at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is Jeff Merkley running for re-election?
Jeff Merkley (D) is the incumbent in this Oregon senate race. Jeff Merkley is seeking a fourth term against Republican David Smith in a state that last elected a GOP senator in 2002. All major raters score Oregon safe Democratic. This contract exists mainly to complete Senate-control arithmetic.
Where can I trade the Oregon senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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