Virginia U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Mark Warner is seeking a fourth term in a state where Democrats swept the 2025 statewide elections by double digits. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Virginia since 2002 and no top-tier challenger emerged. Every forecaster rates the seat safe Democratic.
Favorite: Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Current standings
- 1Shelley Moore Capito (R)97%
- 2Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)2%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person B—
- 5Person C—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Shelley Moore Capito (R) leads on Polymarket at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is Mark Warner running for re-election?
Mark Warner (D) is the incumbent in this Virginia senate race. Mark Warner is seeking a fourth term in a state where Democrats swept the 2025 statewide elections by double digits. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Virginia since 2002 and no top-tier challenger emerged. Every forecaster rates the seat safe Democratic.
Where can I trade the Virginia senate odds?
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