New Mexico U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Ben Ray Luján is defending his seat for the first time since winning it in 2020, facing Republican Larry Marker. New Mexico has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and ratings are uniformly safe Democratic. Expect this contract to trade within a point or two of its floor all cycle.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat95%
- 2Republican3%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is Ben Ray Luján running for re-election?
Ben Ray Luján (D) is the incumbent in this New Mexico senate race. Ben Ray Luján is defending his seat for the first time since winning it in 2020, facing Republican Larry Marker. New Mexico has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and ratings are uniformly safe Democratic. Expect this contract to trade within a point or two of its floor all cycle.
Where can I trade the New Mexico senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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