GeoOdds

Nebraska U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds

NE · U.S. Senate · Class 2Lean R
Incumbent:Pete RickettsR

Pete Ricketts, appointed in 2023 and elected to finish the term in 2024, now runs for a full six years — and independent mechanic Dan Osborn is back after holding Deb Fischer under 54 percent in 2024. Osborn's no-party-label populism travels well in Nebraska, and markets price Ricketts in the mid-60s rather than safe territory. The contract is effectively a referendum on whether the Osborn model can finish the job a second time.

58%implied chance
+1.0pp24h

Favorite: Republican

Current standings

  1. 1
    Republican58%
  2. 2
    Independent40%
  3. 3
    Democrat3%
  4. 4
    Person C
  5. 5
    Person E
  6. 6
    Person G
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Republican

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Republican leads on Polymarket at 58%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.

Is Pete Ricketts running for re-election?

Pete Ricketts (R) is the incumbent in this Nebraska senate race. Pete Ricketts, appointed in 2023 and elected to finish the term in 2024, now runs for a full six years — and independent mechanic Dan Osborn is back after holding Deb Fischer under 54 percent in 2024. Osborn's no-party-label populism travels well in Nebraska, and markets price Ricketts in the mid-60s rather than safe territory. The contract is effectively a referendum on whether the Osborn model can finish the job a second time.

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