California Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Gavin Newsom is term-limited and openly eyeing 2028, and the June top-two primary sent former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) and commentator Steve Hilton (R) to the November ballot. California's partisan math makes Becerra a prohibitive favorite. The contract trades mostly as a hedge leg, while the real speculation follows what Newsom does next.
Favorite: Xavier Becerra
Current standings
- 1Xavier Becerra95%
- 2Steve Hilton5%
- 3Tom Steyer<1%
- 4Rick Caruso<1%
- 5Katie Porter<1%
- 6Stephen Cloobeck<1%
- ·Others (39 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Xavier Becerra
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the California Governor race in 2026?
Xavier Becerra leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is the California governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Gavin Newsom is term-limited and openly eyeing 2028, and the June top-two primary sent former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) and commentator Steve Hilton (R) to the November ballot. California's partisan math makes Becerra a prohibitive favorite. The contract trades mostly as a hedge leg, while the real speculation follows what Newsom does next.
Where can I trade the California governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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