Oklahoma U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Former Williams Companies CEO Alan Armstrong was appointed in March 2026 after Markwayne Mullin resigned to become Homeland Security Secretary, and under Oklahoma law the appointee cannot run for the seat this year. That makes this a fully open Republican primary fight in one of the nation's reddest states. November is rated safe Republican; the only market worth pricing is the GOP nomination.
Favorite: Kevin Hern (R)
Current standings
- 1Kevin Hern (R)95%
- 2N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)4%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person D—
- 5Person F—
- 6Person H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Kevin Hern (R)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
Kevin Hern (R) leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is the Oklahoma senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Alan Armstrong (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Former Williams Companies CEO Alan Armstrong was appointed in March 2026 after Markwayne Mullin resigned to become Homeland Security Secretary, and under Oklahoma law the appointee cannot run for the seat this year. That makes this a fully open Republican primary fight in one of the nation's reddest states. November is rated safe Republican; the only market worth pricing is the GOP nomination.
Where can I trade the Oklahoma senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.