Kansas Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly twice proved Kansas will elect a moderate Democrat governor, but holding the seat without her on the ballot is a taller order. Republicans are favored to reclaim the office in a state Trump carried comfortably, with markets pricing the flip around the mid-70s. The contract is a clean test of whether Kansas's split-ticket tradition survives an open seat.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican66%
- 2Democrat30%
- 3Option B—
- 4Option D—
- 5Option F—
- 6Option H—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Kansas Governor race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 66%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R.
Is the Kansas governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Laura Kelly (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly twice proved Kansas will elect a moderate Democrat governor, but holding the seat without her on the ballot is a taller order. Republicans are favored to reclaim the office in a state Trump carried comfortably, with markets pricing the flip around the mid-70s. The contract is a clean test of whether Kansas's split-ticket tradition survives an open seat.
Where can I trade the Kansas governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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