Illinois U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Dick Durbin's retirement after nearly three decades opened this seat, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton emerged from the March Democratic primary to face Republican Don Tracy. Illinois has not elected a Republican senator since 2010 and the general is rated safe for Democrats. The interesting market action came and went with the primary; November is priced as a formality.
Favorite: Juliana Stratton (D)
Current standings
- 1Juliana Stratton (D)95%
- 2Don Tracy (R)2%
- 3Person A—
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Juliana Stratton (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
Juliana Stratton (D) leads on Polymarket at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D.
Is the Illinois senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Dick Durbin (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Dick Durbin's retirement after nearly three decades opened this seat, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton emerged from the March Democratic primary to face Republican Don Tracy. Illinois has not elected a Republican senator since 2010 and the general is rated safe for Democrats. The interesting market action came and went with the primary; November is priced as a formality.
Where can I trade the Illinois senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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