Alaska Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and Alaska's top-four primary plus ranked-choice general make this open race genuinely hard to model — independents and moderate Republicans can win here, as Mary Peltola and Lisa Murkowski have shown. Prediction markets price the two parties within a few points of even. For traders, Alaska is the rare governor contract where the voting system itself is the edge.
Favorite: Tom Begich
Current standings
- 1Tom Begich49%
- 2Bernadette Wilson30%
- 3Treg Taylor8%
- 4Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins7%
- 5David Bronson4%
- 6Click Bishop2%
- ·Others (34 outcomes)5%
Probability over time — Tom Begich
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Alaska Governor race in 2026?
Tom Begich leads on Polymarket at 49%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up.
Is the Alaska governor seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and Alaska's top-four primary plus ranked-choice general make this open race genuinely hard to model — independents and moderate Republicans can win here, as Mary Peltola and Lisa Murkowski have shown. Prediction markets price the two parties within a few points of even. For traders, Alaska is the rare governor contract where the voting system itself is the edge.
Where can I trade the Alaska governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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