Nevada Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Joe Lombardo, the only Republican governor of a 2024 swing state up this cycle, defends his seat with Attorney General Aaron Ford leading the Democratic charge. Nevada's economy-driven electorate swings hard with national conditions, and markets price the race near 55-45. This is the most genuinely contested incumbent-governor market of 2026.
Favorite: Aaron Ford (D)
Current standings
- 1Aaron Ford (D)69%
- 2Joe Lombardo (R)32%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option B—
- 5Option C—
- 6Option D—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Aaron Ford (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Nevada Governor race in 2026?
Aaron Ford (D) leads on Polymarket at 69%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up.
Is Joe Lombardo running for re-election?
Joe Lombardo (R) is the incumbent in this Nevada governor race. Joe Lombardo, the only Republican governor of a 2024 swing state up this cycle, defends his seat with Attorney General Aaron Ford leading the Democratic charge. Nevada's economy-driven electorate swings hard with national conditions, and markets price the race near 55-45. This is the most genuinely contested incumbent-governor market of 2026.
Where can I trade the Nevada governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.