Kansas U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Roger Marshall is seeking a second term in a state that reliably backs Republicans for federal office even as it elects Democratic governors. Forecasters rate the seat safe for the GOP, though prediction markets price the hold slightly below other safe-rated states. Watch for movement only if Kansas's split-ticket habit produces an unusually strong Democratic recruit.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican78%
- 2Democrat22%
- 3Person B—
- 4Person A—
- 5Person C—
- 6Person E—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 78%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R.
Is Roger Marshall running for re-election?
Roger Marshall (R) is the incumbent in this Kansas senate race. Roger Marshall is seeking a second term in a state that reliably backs Republicans for federal office even as it elects Democratic governors. Forecasters rate the seat safe for the GOP, though prediction markets price the hold slightly below other safe-rated states. Watch for movement only if Kansas's split-ticket habit produces an unusually strong Democratic recruit.
Where can I trade the Kansas senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.