Montana U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds
Steve Daines stunned Montana by withdrawing minutes before the March filing deadline and endorsing U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, a maneuver both parties called a coronation. The fallout created a genuine three-way race: Alme for the GOP, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar. Markets keep Republicans near 80 percent, but the independent lane makes Montana the cycle's most interesting tail-risk trade.
Favorite: Republican
Current standings
- 1Republican74%
- 2Independent23%
- 3Democrat2%
- 4Person C—
- 5Person E—
- 6Person G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Republican
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Republican leads on Polymarket at 74%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R.
Is the Montana senate seat open in 2026?
Yes. Incumbent Steve Daines (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Steve Daines stunned Montana by withdrawing minutes before the March filing deadline and endorsing U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, a maneuver both parties called a coronation. The fallout created a genuine three-way race: Alme for the GOP, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar. Markets keep Republicans near 80 percent, but the independent lane makes Montana the cycle's most interesting tail-risk trade.
Where can I trade the Montana senate odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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