GeoOdds

Montana U.S. Senate Race 2026 — Odds

MT · U.S. Senate · Class 2Likely ROpen seat
Incumbent:Open seat

Steve Daines stunned Montana by withdrawing minutes before the March filing deadline and endorsing U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, a maneuver both parties called a coronation. The fallout created a genuine three-way race: Alme for the GOP, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar. Markets keep Republicans near 80 percent, but the independent lane makes Montana the cycle's most interesting tail-risk trade.

91%implied chance
+0.5pp24h

Favorite: Republican

Current standings

  1. 1
    Republican91%
  2. 2
    Independent6%
  3. 3
    Democrat<1%
  4. 4
    Person C—
  5. 5
    Person E—
  6. 6
    Person G—
  7. ·
    Others (7 outcomes)<1%

Probability over time — Republican

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Republican leads on Polymarket at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R.

Is the Montana senate seat open in 2026?

Yes. Incumbent Steve Daines (R) is not seeking re-election, making this an open seat. Steve Daines stunned Montana by withdrawing minutes before the March filing deadline and endorsing U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, a maneuver both parties called a coronation. The fallout created a genuine three-way race: Alme for the GOP, Democrat Alani Bankhead, and independent former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar. Markets keep Republicans near 80 percent, but the independent lane makes Montana the cycle's most interesting tail-risk trade.

Where can I trade the Montana senate odds?

These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.

New to prediction markets?

New traders get a $20 bonus

Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.

Trade this on Polymarket →

New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.