Pennsylvania Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Josh Shapiro, among the most popular governors in the country and a top 2028 prospect, defends against Treasurer Stacy Garrity in the biggest swing state holding a 2026 governor race. Markets price Shapiro around 95 percent — landslide territory for a state decided by fractions in presidential years. The margin of his win, not the winner, is what traders and 2028 watchers care about.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat93%
- 2Republican7%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Pennsylvania Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D.
Is Josh Shapiro running for re-election?
Josh Shapiro (D) is the incumbent in this Pennsylvania governor race. Josh Shapiro, among the most popular governors in the country and a top 2028 prospect, defends against Treasurer Stacy Garrity in the biggest swing state holding a 2026 governor race. Markets price Shapiro around 95 percent — landslide territory for a state decided by fractions in presidential years. The margin of his win, not the winner, is what traders and 2028 watchers care about.
Where can I trade the Pennsylvania governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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