Arizona Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Katie Hobbs, who won by just 17,000 votes in 2022, seeks a second term in the nation's premier swing state while Republicans fight an expensive primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs. Markets give Hobbs a meaningful incumbency premium at roughly 78 percent. The contract tends to move with national environment numbers more than any Arizona-specific news.
Favorite: Democrat
Current standings
- 1Democrat79%
- 2Republican22%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option C—
- 5Option E—
- 6Option G—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Democrat
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Arizona Governor race in 2026?
Democrat leads on Polymarket at 79%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is Katie Hobbs running for re-election?
Katie Hobbs (D) is the incumbent in this Arizona governor race. Katie Hobbs, who won by just 17,000 votes in 2022, seeks a second term in the nation's premier swing state while Republicans fight an expensive primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs. Markets give Hobbs a meaningful incumbency premium at roughly 78 percent. The contract tends to move with national environment numbers more than any Arizona-specific news.
Where can I trade the Arizona governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
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