Arizona Governor Race 2026 — Odds
Katie Hobbs, who won by just 17,000 votes in 2022, seeks a second term in the nation's premier swing state while Republicans fight an expensive primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs. Markets give Hobbs a meaningful incumbency premium at roughly 78 percent. The contract tends to move with national environment numbers more than any Arizona-specific news.
Favorite: Katie Hobbs (D)
Current standings
- 1Katie Hobbs (D)92%
- 2Andy Biggs (R)9%
- 3Option A—
- 4Option B—
- 5Option C—
- 6Option D—
- ·Others (7 outcomes)<1%
Probability over time — Katie Hobbs (D)
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the Arizona Governor race in 2026?
Katie Hobbs (D) leads on Polymarket at 92%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D.
Is Katie Hobbs running for re-election?
Katie Hobbs (D) is the incumbent in this Arizona governor race. Katie Hobbs, who won by just 17,000 votes in 2022, seeks a second term in the nation's premier swing state while Republicans fight an expensive primary between Karrin Taylor Robson and Rep. Andy Biggs. Markets give Hobbs a meaningful incumbency premium at roughly 78 percent. The contract tends to move with national environment numbers more than any Arizona-specific news.
Where can I trade the Arizona governor odds?
These markets trade on Polymarket — use the Polymarket link on this page to see the live order book. GeoOdds tracks and charts the probabilities but does not take bets. Trading involves risk; 18+ only.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.